Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 190.770352 233.824908 288.089852 363.004784 466.228866 6.074097e+02 8.225609e+02
2025-02-16 142.763317 191.659176 261.806422 374.811013 563.155600 8.882839e+02 1.559025e+03
2025-02-23 116.333067 165.823435 243.351824 383.006965 653.095082 1.222995e+03 2.810746e+03
2025-03-02 96.462897 143.213538 221.063371 373.154686 703.032382 1.526546e+03 4.586410e+03
2025-03-09 82.475601 126.369551 203.064242 363.144913 746.100316 1.861753e+03 7.470478e+03
2025-03-16 71.401945 112.073518 185.837877 348.135709 769.272213 2.175795e+03 1.178725e+04
2025-03-23 68.079099 110.520660 191.672173 384.508549 951.075728 3.323830e+03 3.358918e+04
2025-03-30 62.371620 103.561028 185.189754 389.871917 1048.547299 4.356039e+03 8.620661e+04
2025-04-06 58.514274 99.428124 183.583172 407.037451 1202.703254 6.183965e+03 4.055137e+05
2025-04-13 53.489190 92.260973 173.975203 399.423019 1260.684353 7.632569e+03 2.300714e+06
2025-04-20 52.150685 92.254423 180.359186 440.267978 1569.238199 1.331092e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 50.514422 91.365388 184.489534 476.583492 1913.506507 2.390976e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 48.348466 89.241948 185.707553 506.469908 2294.824993 4.593964e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 45.879618 86.134199 183.876383 525.729675 2662.367028 9.069685e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 43.432008 82.742679 180.627121 538.739487 3029.425044 1.933360e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 40.315438 77.440968 171.212191 523.279589 3133.402870 3.181610e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 37.542986 72.646857 162.450662 507.620332 3223.174043 5.503439e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 34.842344 67.752414 152.667279 484.261743 3202.353840 8.391555e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 34.605832 68.690796 159.875670 541.128695 4304.632658 5.181221e+07 NaN
2025-06-22 33.104149 66.383611 157.039997 549.587883 4838.316924 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 32.133577 65.283529 157.718479 576.786118 5844.922813 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 30.418990 62.143374 151.488929 564.698016 6100.136298 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 30.290029 63.024270 158.326932 629.966659 8583.525519 NaN NaN